The fraction of Catholics will decline more slowly, approaching 20%.
The fraction of other religions might increase slightly.
The Catholic Church sexual abuse cases, which received widespread media attention starting in 1992, have no clear effect on the trends; if anything, confidence in religious institutions increased during the 1990s.
Among people born before 1940, more than 40% say they believe in a literal interpretation of the Christian Bible, and fewer than 15% consider it a collection of fables and legends.
Aspects of secularization include decreasing participation in organized religion, loss of religious belief, and declining respect for religious authority.
Among young adults, this has dropped to 20%, and more than 25% now report “hardly any confidence at all”.Religious beliefs and attitudes are primarily determined by the environment people grow up in, including their family life and wider societal influences.Although some people change religious affiliation later in life, most do not, so changes in the population are largely due to generational replacement.This figure provides an overview of trends in the population, but it is not easy to tell whether they are accelerating, and it does not provide a principled way to make predictions.
Nevertheless, demographic changes like this are highly predictable (at least compared to other kinds of social change).Then we can simulate the results of future surveys.